White Sox Collapse Opens the Door — Who Survives the Wild-Card Race? ⚾🐂
Three weeks ago, the MLB playoff picture looked like it was beginning to settle.
Forget that.
The Chicago White Sox just got swept at home by Pittsburgh, the Cubs are trying to protect their place in October, Cleveland suddenly has a legitimate shot at stealing the AL Central, Houston has an opening to improve its postseason seed, and the National League wild-card race could produce one late surprise.
Welcome to September baseball.
WHITE SOX: FROM DIVISION CONTROL TO DANGER 🚨
The White Sox picked a terrible time to cool off.
Pittsburgh completed a three-game sweep Thursday with a 2-0 shutout, dropping Chicago to its sixth loss in eight games. The Sox managed only two hits in the finale, and their once-comfortable AL Central position has almost disappeared. (Reuters)
After Friday’s games, Chicago sits 75-72, with Cleveland at 75-73.
That’s essentially a dead heat.
And Cleveland just beat Minnesota 5-2 by scoring three times in the ninth inning. That’s exactly the kind of late-season win that can change the psychology of a pennant race. (Reuters)
There’s another problem for Chicago: Tommy Pham is on the injured list with a calf strain, removing a veteran bat acquired specifically for this stretch run. (Reuters)
The schedule gives Chicago an opportunity—but also one massive danger zone.
The Sox still have Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City and Colorado ahead. Cleveland’s remaining slate includes Chicago, Oakland and Boston after Minnesota. (ABC7 Los Angeles)
That upcoming White Sox-Guardians series could basically become an early playoff series.
🐂 BuckBully prediction: Cleveland steals the AL Central
I’m flipping this one.
Guardians win the Central.
White Sox fall into the wild-card fight.
Chicago’s current trajectory concerns me more than the standings themselves.
Momentum isn’t everything in baseball—but losing six of eight in mid-September while the team immediately behind you is winning late games is exactly how divisions disappear.
HOUSTON’S BIGGER OPPORTUNITY: THE #2 BYE
This is where things get interesting.
Houston isn’t running away with the AL West. At 75-73, the Astros aren’t even dramatically better than the teams fighting around the final playoff line.
But MLB’s format rewards division winners.
The top two division champions in each league skip the Wild Card Series and advance directly to the Division Series. (MLB.com)
That makes the collapsing AL Central race extremely important.
If Houston can win the West and finish ahead of whoever survives Chicago/Cleveland, the Astros could grab the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye despite finishing with a record that ordinarily looks more like a wild-card team.
Houston’s remaining schedule isn’t easy—Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Atlanta, Seattle and Oakland remain. (ABC7 Los Angeles)
But the opportunity is absolutely there.
🐂 BuckBully AL seeding projection
#1 Tampa Bay Rays — BYE
#2 Houston Astros — BYE
#3 Cleveland Guardians
#4 New York Yankees
#5 Boston Red Sox
#6 Chicago White Sox
That last spot is where I’d be nervous.
Toronto and Texas remain close enough that a continued White Sox slide could turn Chicago from division leader to missing October entirely.
CUBS: DON’T WORRY ABOUT MILWAUKEE—PROTECT OCTOBER 🐻
The Cubs’ mission has changed.
Milwaukee is 92-56.
Chicago is 82-66.
That’s a 10-game gap with only 14 Cubs games remaining.
Forget catching Milwaukee.
The Brewers would need to collapse while Chicago practically runs the table.
The Cubs’ real objective should be:
Secure the wild card and position the rotation for Game 1.
Friday’s 12-2 demolition of Pittsburgh was exactly what Chicago needed after a four-game losing streak. Alex Bregman homered, Michael Busch drove in three and the Cubs erupted for 16 hits. (Reuters)
More importantly, Chicago has something its record doesn’t immediately reveal:
+128 run differential.
That’s dramatically stronger than several clubs chasing it.
And the Cubs own important tiebreakers against Philadelphia, Arizona and San Diego. (Bleed Cubbie Blue)
I’m bullish on Chicago reaching October.
I’m considerably less confident about where they’ll be seeded.
PHILADELPHIA HAS THE ROUGH ROAD
Philadelphia is basically alongside Chicago at 82-66.
But schedule matters.
The Phillies still have Atlanta, Washington, the Mets, Milwaukee and Tampa Bay remaining.
Recent strength-of-schedule analysis ranked Philadelphia’s remaining path the toughest among the Cubs/Phillies/Diamondbacks/Padres group, while Chicago’s was also difficult but more manageable. (Bleed Cubbie Blue)
That’s why I wouldn’t automatically pencil Philadelphia into the top NL wild-card position.
They should make October.
But they’ll have to earn it.
🐍 DON’T SLEEP ON ARIZONA
Here’s my potential bracket-buster.
Arizona Diamondbacks.
They’re sitting 79-69, right beside San Diego at 79-68.
And their schedule provides an opportunity.
Arizona gets the Rangers, Marlins, Yankees and Rockies before finishing with a potentially enormous series against San Diego. (ABC7 Los Angeles)
That final Diamondbacks-Padres series could effectively decide who plays in October.
The Diamondbacks aren’t dominating statistically—their run differential is basically neutral—but September isn’t always about who looked best for five months.
It’s about who gets hot for three weeks.
🐂 BuckBully upset prediction
Arizona grabs the final NL wild card.
And I wouldn’t be shocked if the Diamondbacks do more than simply qualify.
They’re exactly the type of team I’d hate to see enter a short three-game series with nothing to lose.
MY PROJECTED NL FIELD
This is where I see the National League landing:
#1 Milwaukee Brewers — BYE
#2 Los Angeles Dodgers — BYE
#3 Atlanta Braves
#4 Philadelphia Phillies
#5 Chicago Cubs
#6 Arizona Diamondbacks
That means San Diego gets squeezed out in my biggest September prediction.
It’s close enough that Padres-Diamondbacks could decide whether that prediction looks brilliant or terrible.
🔥 PROJECTED WILD CARD ROUND
If my projected seeds hold, here’s where things get fun.
AL: #3 Cleveland vs. #6 Chicago White Sox
That works better with your updated White Sox outlook. I’d tighten it slightly for the article:
AL: #3 Cleveland vs. #6 Chicago White Sox
This would essentially be an extension of the AL Central race.
Cleveland has been resilient down the stretch, but Chicago still has enough talent—and arguably the deeper roster—to make the Guardians pay in a short series. If the White Sox can reset after their late-season slide and get their pitching lined up, they’re dangerous.
🐂 BuckBully Prediction: White Sox win series 2-1.
That would also change the projected AL Division Series bracket, with Chicago advancing instead of Cleveland.
AL: #4 Yankees vs. #5 Red Sox
Baseball couldn’t ask for much better.
Yankees-Red Sox. October. Best of three.
New York owns one of baseball’s strongest run differentials at +131, which makes the Yankees more convincing to me than simply looking at their seed.
Prediction: Yankees win 2-1.
NL: #3 Atlanta vs. #6 Arizona
Here’s my upset alert.
Atlanta is the superior team over 162 games.
But three games aren’t 162 games.
Prediction: Diamondbacks win 2-1. 🐍
That’s my BuckBully Wild Card upset.
NL: #4 Philadelphia vs. #5 Chicago Cubs
This could be the best matchup of the entire Wild Card round.
Philadelphia has October experience.
Chicago has quietly produced one of baseball’s strongest run differentials.
And if the Cubs finish behind Philadelphia, they’d have to win this series on the road.
Prediction: Cubs win 2-1. 🐻
Not comfortably.
Not easily.
But Chicago’s offensive ceiling and season-long run differential make me willing to take the upset.
🐂 BUCKBULLY OCTOBER BRACKET
That would leave us with:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay — BYE
Houston — BYE
Cleveland defeats White Sox
Yankees defeat Red Sox
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee — BYE
Dodgers — BYE
Arizona upsets Atlanta
Cubs upset Philadelphia
And suddenly we’d have a Division Series featuring teams that looked nowhere near each other in the standings a few weeks earlier.
That’s October baseball.
THE BUCKBULLY TAKE ⚾🐂
The standings tell us where teams are.
Momentum, injuries and schedule tell us where they might be going.
Right now my biggest September calls are:
Cleveland catches Chicago for division lead. Houston benefits and grabs the second AL bye. The Cubs stop worrying about Milwaukee and secure their wild card. Philadelphia survives a brutal schedule. Arizona overtakes San Diego—and becomes the dangerous team nobody wants in a three-game series.
The White Sox are the team I’m watching closest.
Two weeks ago, winning the Central looked like the goal.
Today?
They need to make sure they’re still playing baseball in October.
September doesn’t care what you did in April.
Get hot. Stay healthy. Survive.
Be Bullish On What You Value. 🐂⚾
BuckBully playoff projections are editorial predictions based on current standings, schedules, recent performance and available injury information as of September 11, 2026.