REVENGE, ELIMINATION & LATE-INNING DRAMA
Game 1 stayed the course of predictability.
We picked Atlanta, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees and San Diego to take Game 1 — and all four delivered.
That’s a 4-0 start to the MLB postseason for the BuckBully moneyline predictions.
But the final two games weren’t just victories.
They were beatdowns.
The Yankees embarrassed Boston 9-0, while San Diego shut down Chicago 8-0. Yankees starter Cam Schlittler struck out 10 while allowing only two hits over 6⅓ innings, and Ben Rice exploded for two home runs and six RBIs. In San Diego, Michael King allowed just one hit over seven innings while Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts all went deep.
Now four teams are one victory away from advancing.
Four others are one loss away from going home.
But don’t expect Game 2 to look exactly like Game 1.
My biggest adjustment Wednesday is this:
I still expect the Yankees and Padres to finish the sweep — but I don’t expect either one to do it comfortably.
Boston +1.5.
Chicago Cubs +1.5.
Both games have the ingredients to remain close through six or seven innings before the home teams finally take control.
PHILLIES AT BRAVES
Atlanta Leads 1-0
Pitching: Cristopher Sánchez vs. Tyler Mahle
Atlanta stole Game 1 late.
Philadelphia actually took a 3-2 lead before Austin Riley’s three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth completely flipped the game and gave Atlanta a 5-3 victory.
That ending matters.
The Phillies weren’t dominated. They were a couple of late outs away from controlling the series.
Now Philadelphia hands the ball to Cristopher Sánchez, and this is exactly the type of situation where a strong starter can reset an entire series.
Sánchez enters Game 2 with a 2.91 ERA, and Atlanta isn’t likely to get many easy opportunities if he’s commanding the strike zone.
BuckBully Projection
This is my first series-extension candidate.
Philadelphia has the starting-pitching advantage and already proved in Game 1 that it can play Atlanta close.
This time, I think the Phillies finish the job.
PICKS
Phillies ML
Phillies First 5
Cristopher Sánchez Over strikeouts — depending on final line
Lean: UNDER
GAME SCRIPT
Philadelphia gets Sánchez through six strong innings and avoids asking its bullpen to survive too many outs.
BUCKBULLY PICK: PHILLIES
WHITE SOX AT ASTROS
Chicago Leads 1-0
Pitching: Sean Burke vs. Hunter Brown
Chicago made a statement in Game 1 with a 6-3 victory, but Game 2 presents Houston with a completely different pitching situation.
The Astros get Hunter Brown.
And when your season is down to 27 outs, that’s exactly who you want taking the baseball.
Chicago has already accomplished the hardest part — stealing Game 1 on the road. Houston now has to treat Wednesday like Game 7.
BuckBully Projection
I expect Houston to be more aggressive offensively and Brown to keep Chicago from producing another six-run performance.
This feels like another series headed toward Thursday.
PICKS
Astros ML
Hunter Brown pitching outs — Over lean
Astros First 5
Lean: UNDER
GAME SCRIPT
Brown settles the game early, Houston scratches out a couple runs in the middle innings and its bullpen protects the lead.
BUCKBULLY PICK: ASTROS
RED SOX AT YANKEES
Yankees Lead 1-0
Now it gets interesting.
Forget the 9-0 score for a minute.
I’m not expecting Game 2 to remotely resemble Game 1.
Boston sends Sonny Gray to the mound against Max Fried.
Gray finished the regular season 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA, while Fried enters with a 2.80 ERA. The current total is only 6.5 runs, while Boston is sitting around +1.5 on the run line.
That’s a completely different setup from Tuesday.
There’s another major factor: Aaron Judge isn’t on the Yankees’ Wild Card roster because of a calf injury.
New York still has enough offense to win this series.
But asking them to reproduce nine runs against Gray is asking too much.
BOSTON’S REVENGE — WITHOUT THE WIN
This is where I’m changing my original Game 2 thought.
I expected Boston to respond.
I still do.
But responding doesn’t necessarily mean winning.
Boston can go from losing 9-0 to losing 3-2 and still give us exactly the type of rebound we’re looking for.
Gray gives Boston a chance to stay within one run through the first five or six innings. Fried can do exactly the same thing on the opposite side.
Then the game becomes a bullpen battle.
That’s where I expect New York eventually to find the run it needs.
BuckBully Projection
And that’s the important distinction:
Yankees advance.
Red Sox cover +1.5.
The current market is pricing Boston +1.5 heavily, which fits the expectation that this could be significantly tighter than Game 1.
PICKS
Yankees ML — Series Sweep
Red Sox +1.5 — Favorite Run-Line Play
First 5 Under
Full Game Under 6.5 lean
Sonny Gray strikeouts — Over lean
PLAYER PROP WATCH
Sonny Gray strikeouts: Gray’s ability to miss bats gives Boston its best opportunity to reach the seventh inning within striking distance.
Max Fried earned runs: Boston’s offense has struggled recently, and Fried enters with a 2.80 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP.
Ben Rice total bases: After two homers and six RBIs in Game 1, Rice is officially the Yankee hitter Boston can’t allow to beat them again.
THE SCRIPT
1st–3rd: Pitchers control the game.
4th–6th: Boston finally breaks its postseason scoring drought.
7th: Tie game or one-run margin.
8th–9th: Yankees manufacture the deciding run.
This time Boston walks away eliminated — but with some dignity restored.
BUCKBULLY PICK: YANKEES ML + RED SOX +1.5
CUBS AT PADRES
Padres Lead 1-0
Same philosophy.
Different coast.
San Diego demolished Chicago 8-0 Tuesday. Michael King allowed just one hit through seven innings and the Padres’ stars supplied the power.
But Chicago didn’t score 850 regular-season runs by accident.
I’m not betting on another shutout.
I’m betting on a response.
The Cubs turn to Kevin Gausman, while San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta.
The market currently has San Diego around a -140 favorite, but Chicago’s +1.5 run line is priced heavily — another indication that a competitive game is very plausible despite Tuesday’s blowout.
CUBS GET THEIR REVENGE — AT THE PLATE
Chicago doesn’t necessarily need to win for the offense to redeem itself.
Score some runs.
Make Pivetta work.
Get San Diego into its bullpen.
Reach the seventh inning within a run.
Then see what happens.
That’s much more realistic than assuming Tuesday’s 8-0 result repeats itself.
BuckBully Projection
I’m still trusting San Diego to finish the series.
But barely.
That produces the same combination I’m targeting in Yankees–Boston:
Padres advance.
Cubs +1.5 covers.
Current markets have Chicago roughly +1.5 and San Diego favored on the moneyline, with totals around seven to 7.5 depending on the book.
PICKS
Padres ML — Series Sweep
Cubs +1.5 — Run-Line Play
Cubs Team Total Over — lean
Full Game Over 7 — lean
PLAYER PROP WATCH
Fernando Tatis Jr. total bases
Tatis went 2-for-3 with a homer and three runs in Game 1. He’s the San Diego bat I’m watching again.
Manny Machado to record a hit
Another Padres power bat capable of changing a close postseason game with one swing.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to record a hit
This is the Chicago rebound angle. I’m expecting much better contact from the Cubs lineup after being completely overwhelmed Tuesday.
THE SCRIPT
1st–3rd: Chicago immediately looks more competitive.
4th–6th: Cubs finally produce runs and answer San Diego.
7th: One-run game.
8th: Padres’ bullpen becomes the difference.
9th: San Diego closes it.
No 8-0 embarrassment.
No easy victory.
Just October baseball.
BUCKBULLY PICK: PADRES ML + CUBS +1.5
BUCKBULLY GAME 2 CARD
Game 1 was about picking winners.
Game 2 is about understanding how those teams win.
PHILLIES–BRAVES
Phillies ML
WHITE SOX–ASTROS
Astros ML
RED SOX–YANKEES
Yankees ML + Red Sox +1.5
CUBS–PADRES
Padres ML + Cubs +1.5
THE LATE-INNING PARLAY
This is my favorite Game 2 concept:
Phillies ML
Astros ML
Red Sox +1.5
Padres ML + Cubs +1.5
Those combinations aren’t contradictions.
We’re predicting who advances while recognizing that the elimination teams should fight considerably harder than Tuesday’s final scores suggest.
REVENGE DOESN’T ALWAYS MEAN VICTORY
That’s the theme of Game 2.
Boston wants revenge for 9-0.
Chicago wants revenge for 8-0.
I expect both teams to get it — just not on the scoreboard that matters most.
Boston scores.
Chicago scores.
Both games stay competitive.
Both underdogs reach the late innings with a chance to steal the game.
But October is ultimately about finishing.
Yankees survive Boston, 3-2.
Padres survive Chicago, 4-3.
New York and San Diego complete the sweeps.
Boston +1.5 and Chicago +1.5 cash.
And unlike Tuesday night, we may have to wait until after the seventh inning to find out who’s moving on.
🎟️ BuckBully Lottery Ticket
Our Game 2 Lottery Ticket is built around one theme: expect a fight, not a repeat of Game 1. We’re backing Philadelphia on the moneyline, pairing it with Cristopher Sánchez 6+ strikeouts and Under 8.5 runs in a pitching-driven matchup. Boston and Chicago were embarrassed in Game 1, but instead of calling for outright upsets, we’re taking the safer Red Sox +1.5 and Cubs +1.5, expecting both elimination games to stay tight into the late innings; Sonny Gray 5+ strikeouts and Boston–New York Under 8 reinforce that script, while Cubs–Padres Over 6 gives Chicago room to finally wake up offensively. We round out the ticket with White Sox +1.5, giving us protection in another game we expect to remain competitive. Different games, different angles, one ticket—the goal isn’t chasing yesterday’s blowouts, but capitalizing on Game 2 adjustments, desperation and close October baseball.
Odds change throughout the day. Verify current moneylines, run lines, totals and player props before wagering. Predictions are based on matchup analysis, recent performance, pitching trends and historical data and are not guarantees. Wager responsibly.