Predictions, Upsets & Championship Futures 🎾🔥
The U.S. Open has reached crunch time, and if this tournament has taught us anything, it’s that the bracket doesn’t care about reputation.
Carlos Alcaraz is out. The women’s draw has turned into a battle between the top four seeds. Coco Gauff is still alive in front of the New York crowd. Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe are about to make history.
And suddenly, the championship picture looks very different than it did two weeks ago.
Here’s the BuckBully breakdown of the matchups, potential upsets and players we think have the best chance to leave Flushing Meadows with the trophy.
THE SHOCKER: SHELTON TAKES DOWN ALCARAZ
This changed everything.
Ben Shelton knocked out defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set quarterfinal thriller, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6. The match finished at 3:33 a.m., the latest finish in U.S. Open history. (Reuters)
Before the tournament, Alcaraz was viewed as the standout men’s favorite by Opta’s simulations. Instead, Shelton blew open that side of the bracket. (Opta Analyst)
That leaves four men:
Alexander Zverev vs. Karen Khachanov
Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton
And here’s where things get interesting.
SHELTON vs. TIAFOE 🇺🇸
This might be the match of the tournament.
Shelton brings the massive serve, explosive forehand and fearless mentality. Tiafoe brings experience, movement, creativity and one of the biggest home-court advantages imaginable.
There’s also history attached: Shelton and Tiafoe will become the first two Black American men to face each other in a Grand Slam semifinal in the Open Era. (Reuters)
Tiafoe had to climb out of a two-set deficit against Alex Michelsen in the quarterfinals, eventually winning a fifth-set tiebreak. Shelton had his own five-set war against Alcaraz. Neither man is arriving fresh. (US Open)
BuckBully Prediction 🐂
Ben Shelton in 5 sets.
Tiafoe can absolutely win this, especially if Shelton’s first-serve percentage falls. But Shelton’s ability to manufacture cheap points with his serve could become increasingly important as fatigue sets in.
Upset potential: HIGH.
This feels close to a coin flip.
ZVEREV vs. KHACHANOV
Alexander Zverev might quietly have become the man to beat.
He dispatched Botic van de Zandschulp 6-2, 7-5, 6-1 and has now reached the semifinals of all four Grand Slams in 2026. His 23 major-match victories this year are also a German men’s record, surpassing Boris Becker’s 1989 mark. (Reuters)
Karen Khachanov advanced when Alexander Blockx retired while trailing in their quarterfinal. (Reuters)
There’s some history here too: Zverev defeated Khachanov in the gold-medal match at the Tokyo Olympics.
BuckBully Prediction 🐂
Zverev in 4 sets.
Khachanov has enough power to make this uncomfortable, but Zverev looks increasingly settled as the tournament progresses.
Upset potential: MEDIUM.
If Khachanov steals an early set and turns this into another New York marathon, things get more interesting.
WOMEN’S SEMIFINALS: THE HEAVYWEIGHTS SURVIVED
The women’s bracket has produced something extremely rare.
The top four seeds all reached the semifinals, the first time that has happened at a women’s Grand Slam since Wimbledon in 2009. (Reuters)
Thursday night’s lineup:
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula
Elena Rybakina vs. Coco Gauff
This isn’t Cinderella territory.
It’s heavyweight territory.
SABALENKA vs. PEGULA
Aryna Sabalenka is chasing history.
The two-time defending U.S. Open champion is trying to become the first woman since Serena Williams from 2012-14 to win three consecutive U.S. Open titles. (Reuters)
But Jessica Pegula shouldn’t be treated like a ceremonial semifinal opponent.
Sabalenka leads their career series 9-4, but Pegula has won two of their last three meetings. (Reuters)
BuckBully Prediction 🐂
Sabalenka in 3 sets.
Pegula’s consistency can frustrate Sabalenka, but when Sabalenka controls her power rather than simply swinging harder, she’s incredibly difficult to beat on this surface.
Upset potential: MEDIUM-HIGH.
Pegula winning would not shock us.
GAUFF vs. RYBAKINA 🔥
This one could steal the show.
Coco Gauff looked nearly finished against Mirra Andreeva. She lost the opening set 6-2 and then faced two match points before completing a 2-6, 7-6, 6-2 comeback. (US Open)
Waiting for her is Elena Rybakina.
Rybakina also came from a set down against Zheng Qinwen and, by reaching the semifinal, secured the world No. 1 ranking that she will officially assume after the tournament. (Reuters)
Their head-to-head entering the semifinal is tied 1-1. (Reuters)
BuckBully Prediction 🐂
Rybakina in 3 sets — close match.
Rybakina has the cleaner power game, but New York changes the equation.
If Gauff can extend rallies, attack Rybakina’s movement and turn the match into an emotional battle, Arthur Ashe Stadium could become a serious advantage.
Upset potential: VERY HIGH.
BUCKBULLY CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES 🏆
At this stage, we’re ranking the remaining players by our own championship outlook rather than simply following their seedings.
Men: Zverev 🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂 | Shelton 🐂🐂🐂🐂½ | Tiafoe 🐂🐂🐂½ | Khachanov 🐂🐂🐂
Women: Sabalenka 🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂 | Rybakina 🐂🐂🐂🐂½ | Gauff 🐂🐂🐂🐂½ | Pegula 🐂🐂🐂½
Our projected finals:
MEN: Zverev vs. Shelton
WOMEN: Sabalenka vs. Rybakina
And our BuckBully championship picks:
🏆 Men’s Champion: Alexander Zverev
🏆 Women’s Champion: Sabalenka
Gauff is the riskier call. Zverev is the steadier one.
5 FUN FACTS FROM A WILD U.S. OPEN
Ben Shelton became the first American man to defeat Alcaraz at a Grand Slam. (US Open)
Shelton-Alcaraz ended at 3:33 a.m., creating a new U.S. Open record and reigniting debate over how late Grand Slam matches should be played. (Reuters)
Zverev has now made the semifinals at every major this season. (Reuters)
Rybakina will become the 30th woman to hold the WTA No. 1 ranking. (US Open)
And Shelton vs. Tiafoe guarantees an American man will play in Sunday’s U.S. Open final.
THE BUCKBULLY TAKE 🐂
The best tournaments are the ones where the bracket stops behaving.
Alcaraz looked like the man to beat. He’s gone.
Gauff was two points from elimination. She’s still here.
Rybakina walked into New York chasing a trophy and will leave as world No. 1.
Shelton and Tiafoe now have an opportunity to make American tennis history.
And Zverev suddenly has a wide-open path toward another major championship.
That’s what makes the U.S. Open different.
The lights are brighter. The crowd is louder. Matches run into the middle of the night. Favorites fall.
And in New York, surviving the chaos might be more important than dominating it.
Watch the match. Follow the momentum. Find the opportunity.
Be Bullish On What You Value. 🐂
Predictions are BuckBully editorial opinions for entertainment and discussion purposes and are not betting advice.